In a recent article for Christianity Today, Bonnie Kristian asks an important and timely question: Is Ron DeSantis equipped to woo evangelical Christians away from Donald Trump in the fight for the 2024 Republican nomination for president?
As has been documented for nearly a decade, evangelical Christians—and particularly white evangelicals—have been a major boon to Donald Trump’s political ambitions. Exit polling estimated over 75 percent of white evangelicals voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. And while deeper analysis revealed flaws in these numbers, the conclusion remained the same: Despite countless examples of flawed public character and an erratic moral compass, Trump was nevertheless twice the candidate of choice for the vast majority of white evangelical Christians in the United States.
In her article, Kristian wonders whether DeSantis—the two-term governor of Florida and prospective candidate for president next year—is situated to appeal to evangelicals enough to overcome Trump for the Republican nomination. Consider the evidence:
A practicing Catholic, DeSantis has a facility with biblical references Trump could never quite master, and he fits comfortably in evangelical culture in a way Trump does not. He’s a throwback to pre-Trump Republican appeals to white evangelicals as a voting bloc, in which candidates often identified with evangelicalism to a degree Trump has never attempted.
Kristian continues:
There have been only glimpses of DeSantis’s version of campaign Christianity so far, but what little we have seen has been revealing. As much as he sometimes feels like a pre-2016 throwback where evangelical outreach is concerned, DeSantis is decidedly a post-Trump candidate too, with a brash culture-war pugilism almost every GOP contender will try to emulate this cycle.
There are at least a couple of reasons for thinking DeSantis will be successful in his appeal to evangelicals. The first is that evangelicals may be exhausted after nearly seven years of Trump’s craziness, and may be looking to move on. Some studies have shown cracks in Trump’s support among Republicans, and evangelicals may decide to head in a different direction in preparing for a winnable election against an aging incumbent in a topsy-turvy economy.
The second reason flows from the first: Evangelicals may see DeSantis as politically and rhetorically similar to Trump, but without the baggage the former president brings with him. A big reason for evangelicals’ support for Trump in 2016 and 2020 was his reputation as a fighter, someone they believed would aggressively pursue and defend their interests against an increasingly hostile secular culture. DeSantis has spent the last few years bolstering his anti-woke credentials and culture war bonafides. Strong conservatives—including evangelicals—could see DeSantis as in their corner as much as Trump is, but without the moral (and legal) concerns.
Even so, I’d be surprised if DeSantis’ more sophisticated and natural appeals to evangelicals were effective at cleaving a large bloc from one of Trump’s most steadfast bases of support. Here are two reasons why.
Reason #1: The Lesson of 2016
When Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president in 2015, he encountered a number of other candidates better situated to appeal to white evangelicals. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum were far more comfortable talking about Christianity’s influence in politics and public life. These candidates could “speak the language” with much greater fluency than Trump; none of them would reference a passage from “Two Corinthians.”
Ultimately, though, this didn’t matter. Trump quickly emerged as the leader in the GOP nomination fight, and as candidates dropped out, his support consolidated. Still, the thinking was that evangelicals preferred “anybody but Trump” in a broadly contested primary field, and only reluctantly voted for Trump in a matchup against Hillary Clinton after he had defeated his Republican competitors.
The data, however, tell a different story. One poll showed white evangelicals preferred Trump to his fellow nominees as early as January 2016. And later research confirmed that evangelicals were often early Trump voters instead of reluctant latecomers. 2024 could be different, especially in a year with fewer Republican candidates for president, a strong alternative in DeSantis, and everything we now know about what kind of president Trump would be. But what we saw in 2016 should give us pause in thinking Trump is poised to lose evangelicals just because an acceptable alternative exists.
Reason #2: Trump Support as Central to Political Identity
There is more important reason why I think evangelicals may not be willing to buck Trump for DeSantis in 2024. Simply put, support for Trump could be understand as a key part of conservative political identity.
In response to years’ worth of criticism of Trump as a candidate and a president, Republicans circled the wagons in their defense of Trump and opposition to his critics. Indeed, I’d posit it was not so much their support of Trump and his actions that motivated conservatives’ attitudes, but rather hostility toward Democrats and political progressives. Trump support signaled one’s belonging to a tribe. Negative partisanship, it is said, is a helluva drug.
As we inch closer to the 2024 election, Trump remains the key figure in opposing “the left” and elected Democrats. Most Republicans believe he was cheated out of a second term as president. DeSantis may be as much of a fighter as Trump was and is, and given his temperament and focus he may very well be a more effective president. But for many Republicans, that’s not the point: In a recent CBS poll, 57 percent of likely GOP primary voters—including, presumably, a share of evangelicals—preferred a candidate who “makes liberals angry.” While DeSantis may be a natural sucessor to Trump’s politics, Trump is Classic Coke.
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Ron DeSantis has not declared his candidacy for presidency, and while all signs suggest he’s leaning toward doing so, until then this conversation is premature. Still, people hoping for a GOP alternative to Trump in 2024 shouldn’t be so quick to assume DeSantis’ familiarity with the Bible, rhetorical polish, and aggressive brand of politics will be enough to convince evangelicals to abandon Trump.
We have seen this movie before.