Christian political scientists prefer Biden in 2020
A majority of those surveyed said they'll vote for Biden over Trump, a 20 point increase for the Democratic candidate compared to 2016
A new article from Inside Higher Ed details the uneasy relationship between Christian college professors and support for Donald Trump in his bid for reelection. The article cites a new poll from PRRI, finding that white evangelicals with college degrees are far less likely to support Trump than white evangelicals without a degree (52 percent to 65 percent). This education gap has not appeared until this year, according to earlier versions of the poll.
Relatedly, I’ve been fascinated for years by the disconnect between white evangelicals’ support for Trump and Christian college professors’ support for Trump. Whereas Trump’s support among white evangelicals remains the highest among virtually any demographic, his support among Christian college professors (many of whom are white evangelicals, too) is lower than average.
Following the 2016 election, a colleague and I surveyed political science faculty at Council for Christian Colleges and Universities institutions. We found that these faculty were far less likely to have voted for Trump than the typical white evangelical — specifically, just 25 percent of those surveyed said they voted for Trump, compared to 36 percent who voted for Hillary Clinton and 39 percent who said they voted for someone else or didn’t vote at all. Importantly, we found that these faculty were not prone to shun the Republican candidate in previous elections, as a majority of those surveyed reported supporting every other Republican nominee going back to George W. Bush.
Early this year I replicated this survey, seeing how Trump’s first term in office had affected his numbers among Christian college faculty. The result? Not much: just over 25 percent said they were planning to vote for Trump in 2020, compared to 36 percent who said they would vote for the Democratic nominee. Interestingly, 20 percent in this survey said their vote would depend on who became the Democratic nominee.
After Biden locked up the Democratic nomination later in the spring, I surveyed this group one last time in August. With the nominees decided, how would faculty at CCCU political science departments (and Christian political scientists in general) be approaching the 2020 election? Would it be a repeat of 2016, or would that undecided group from the early 2020 survey break sharply for Trump and put the Republican candidate on top again?
I received responses from 105 political scientists. Nearly 81 percent of the sample was between 35-64 years old, and almost 80 percent were male. A majority (53 percent) identified as either strong or lean Republican, compared to 25 percent identifying as strong or lean Democrat. Those who answered this survey reported similar behavior in past election choices to those surveyed earlier, as there was a clear preference for Republican presidents prior to 2016.
Asked about their vote choice in 2020, a majority (56 percent) said they would be voting for Biden, roughly 20 points higher than Hillary Clinton’s support among this group in 2016. Interestingly, of these Biden voters, 31 percent identified as either strong or lean Republican. By contrast, just 23 percent of those surveyed said they would be voting for Trump (a similar figure to 2016), and all but one respondent identified as strong or lean Republican.
Unlike in previous surveys, this time I asked respondents what was motivating their vote choice. Among those voting for Trump, the most common theme in their answers was support for conservative policies and ideas contrasted against the Democratic Party’s goals; Trump’s judicial appointments was another important reason. Among those voting for Biden, the most common theme was Biden’s temperament and character as a potential president. Others referenced the need to remove Trump from the White House, for either institutional or character reasons. Only two respondents cited a preference for the Democratic Party’s policies as justification for their vote.
While white evangelicals will likely give a sizeable boost to President Trump’s vote total next month, Christian political scientists likely won’t be among them.