Which 2024 candidate do Christian political science professors prefer?
It's good news for Nikki Haley
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is now less than a year away. In some ways, there is less drama than normal at this juncture of the election calendar: Joe Biden is the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, while Donald Trump continues to dominate a small but steady field of Republican challengers. Unless something extraordinary transpires over the next few months, 2024 looks to be a replay of the 2020 election, with only the roles of the top candidates reversed.
That doesn’t mean people are happy with their choices, however. Both Biden and Trump are unpopular candidates, with neither man possessing positive favorability ratings. And a poll from Morning Consult recently found that one in five independent voters would rather give their vote for president to someone else.
Which brings me to the question posed in the title: Which presidential candidate do Christian political science professors prefer in 2024?
Since 2016 I have surveyed Christian political science faculty about their vote choice for president. Originally, I wanted to know whether the preferences of Christian political scientists differed from their brothers and sisters in the church at large, particularly with an unorthodox—and, by his own admission, institutionally threatening—Republican candidate on the ticket. Being experts on these very institutions, would political scientists be as prone to back the Republican as their fellow Christian voters?
The answer, it turned out, was, “No.” There were clear differences in vote choice between Christian political scientists—most of whom would identify as evangelicals—and evangelical Christians in general. In 2016, just 25 percent of Christian political scientists voted for Trump, compared to roughly 80 percent of Christians as a whole. And in 2020, about the same number reported they were planning to vote for Trump.1
Importantly, while Christian political scientists were more likely to vote for the Democratic and other candidates than was the typical Christian voter, the 2016 and 2020 elections were serious departures from previous presidential elections among Christian political scientists. From 2004 to 2012, these voters were far more likely to vote for the Republican candidate, only dipping below 50 percent support for the GOP in 2008.
So what about 2024? Last month I surveyed about 150 political scientists at colleges and universities affiliated with the CCCU.2 I received responses from 49, so while you should take these results with a serious grain of salt, the response rate was a relatively robust 33 percent. Here is what I found:
When asked, “If the 2024 presidential election was held today, for whom would you want to vote?”…
33 percent of respondents said they would want to vote for Biden, a number consistent with past surveys’ measures of support for the Democratic candidate among these voters
The same number of respondents reported wanting to vote for Nikki Haley, making her the favorite among Republican candidates
Just one respondent indicated s/he would prefer Trump
Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, and Mike Pence came in second, third, and fourth among GOP candidates3
In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump, 55 percent of respondents preferred Biden, 14 percent preferred Trump, and the rest said they wouldn’t vote for either
In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and DeSantis, 47 percent of respondents preferred Biden, 42 percent preferred DeSantis, and the rest said they wouldn’t vote for either
In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Haley, 27 percent of respondents preferred Biden, 67 percent preferred Haley, and the rest said they wouldn’t vote for either
Both Scott and Pence received majority support from respondents in their head-to-head matchups, whereas relative newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy garnered just 20 percent
It is noteworthy that the candidates more aligned with the traditional GOP—Haley, Scott, and Pence—did exceptionally better among Christian political scientists than candidates associated with the post-Trump GOP; clearly, Christian political scientists have a type.
While Christian political scientists continue to be skeptical of Donald Trump as a future president, they are by no means unwilling to give their votes to GOP alternatives. If the Republican Party’s leadership was serious about locking up this crucial demographic,4 they would be pushing hard for Nikki Haley.
This survey was conducted in February 2020, prior to the COVID pandemic.
This sample was solidly Republican (47 percent either strong or lean Republican), compared to less than 37 percent saying they were strong or leaning Democrat. Nearly 88 percent reported attending church on a weekly basis.
Since this survey was conducted, both Scott and Pence have suspended their campaigns
Just kidding; political scientists of any kind are not a “crucial demographic.”